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Skex Relbore The Dominion of Light 113	Posted - 2012.03.14 03:29:00 - [1] - Quote OMG this is the stupid that will not die There is no inflation problem. The spike that you saw in December was a material supply shortage due to some changes that happened in the drone lands. Inflation is not, has not and never ***** will be a problem in this MMO. People have been crying "OMG TEH inflation!!" for as long as I've played this game and so far except for some material supply issues caused by CCP tinkering with various resource inputs and manufacturing requirements prices have remained stable or dropped. Don't you think it's kind of strange that prices remained flat for the entire rest of the year? People have been running incursions that entire friggin time but somehow we're supposed to think that some magical ***** tipping point was finally reached in December Really? Don't you think that if there were an inflation problem due to isk inputs that you would have seen a steady increase in prices as that isk accumulated in the economy ISK is not a fiat currency! It is a highly portable commodity that is harvested by shooting NPCs. If that commodity is devalued by over supply you'll see people moving to other activities and things will balance out. As isk levels increase demand for other products will increase which will bump prices which will encourage people activate idea production assets. Hell prices on minerals or Ice get bumped enough and I've got 4 toons that could be out mining tomorrow. Remember the only reason inflation is a problem in the real world is sticky wages, if wages adjusted automatically with inflation it would never be an issue. They don't which is why it causes pain in the real economy. I'm not going to spend forever explaining this read through my posting history and you'll see multiple explanations of this. Wages are not sticky in EVE people can increase their wages simply by moving to the more lucrative activities or baring that into supplying resources for those who do engage in those activities. They don't have to talk their boss into a raise they don't have to interview for a new job or go take a certification course or convince someone to give them a chance because the position requires experience but the only way to get experience is to get a position No you inject a skill book or two invest in some capital assets and set to making your fortune. Also it's generally better for the isk to flow easily and freely. It's mainly psychological but people tend to be more optimistic and less risk adverse when they feel like they are making more money. Higher bounties means bears who are more willing to buy those fancy faction modules that the Null sec crowd sell to buy their fancy PVP ships. And it's just a fact that a person making 100mil an hour is going to be looser with their money than someone making 10mil an hour or 1 mil an hour Finally never forget that isk supply is not the sole determiner of inflation, Inflation is a factor of currency supply relative to the production of the economy. Just because your currency supply is increasing does not automatically equal inflation. If your productivity is increasing faster you'll actually end up with deflation. And unlike the real world the only limit on production in EVE is time. Belts replenish, rats respawn, and you can always find new planets to PI on. So as isk increases it simply increases the insentive to go out and harvest/create other resouces
Skex Relbore The Dominion of Light 115	Posted - 2012.03.14 17:33:00 - [2] - Quote gfldex wrote: Skex Relbore wrote: Don't you think it's kind of strange that prices remained flat for the entire rest of the year? People have been running incursions that entire friggin time but somehow we're supposed to think that some magical ******* tipping point was finally reached in December There is one. It's more of an area then a point, tho. I'm pretty sure you will come up with the right answer yourself. There is a complex interaction between PLEX, ISK, minerals/sleeper goo and the number of active accounts. There are sort-of-tipping points and I believe we have hit one. In 0.0 your available time to NPC scales with the distance to empire. Paragon is a nice place to chill out. :) With incursions you don't have that. On the notion that it's easier to change profession in EVE then on Earth I do not agree. Well, for us 100M+SP folk it is. For the waste majority of active accounts it's not. They have to skill for a few month to be competitive. ISK prices have more to do with the real economy than the EVE economy. The reason being that the less real money people have due to real economic hardship will result in a greater demand from people trying to pay for their play in ISK rather than real world currency putting upward pressure on the ISK price of a plex, this also results in fewer people trying to sell plex for isk reducing the supply of plex and putting upward pressure on price. The fact that the cost of plex is influenced by the real world economy means that it's a useless metric for measuring monetary inflation in game. Oh and it's much easier to change professions in EVE compared to real life. or are you really going to pretend that injecting some skills and waiting out the training is harder than going back to school to learn a new profession? As to the argument that newbies and low skilled characters can't avail themselves of other opportunities the simple fact that those 100m sp vets can will balance matters out for those who remain in a given profession because they lack the skills.
Skex Relbore The Dominion of Light 116	Posted - 2012.03.14 20:40:00 - [3] - Quote Liang Nuren wrote: Not really, no. See, the thing about it is that there's a concept called mudflation - where in game currency enters the game via currency faucets faster than it leaves the game via currency sinks. This leads to an overall devaluation of in game currency and the price of items to rise because everyone has so much more in game currency laying around doing nothing Basically: people are asking for a healthy in game economy - which is why all the endless mentioning of faucets and sinks is necessary. [:) -Liang Actually mudflation has less to do with currency than with power accumulation. Game currency is only one part of mudflation, generally mudflation has more to do with older items losing value while others end up with ex-ordinate prices due to factors beyond simple currency accumulation. So in generic fantasy mmo a sword that's powerful in the original release is superceeded by a new sword in an expansion the value of the previous sword drops to nothing. This is exacerbated by the fact that for the most part items are indestructible and the most desirable are generally not trade-able. Resulting in a situation where players have very little to spend their currency on as such those few things that are desirable end up costing extreme amounts while the vast majority of trade-able items rapidly drop to "vendor-trash" status resulting in even more currency entering the economy Also currency generation in most MMO's tends to be an incidental rather than a goal in and of itself, you earn isk in the normal process of advancing your character. Since most MMO's are level/xp based where one has to "grind" for more power and currency is injected via "loots" from the grinding activity you end up with a constantly expanding currency base with very few things of interest for players to spend it on, Resulting in a screwed up game economy and "Mudflation EVE doesn't suffer from this problem for a number of reasons. the two biggies being destructible trade-able items and the Market system Since everything is destructible and all things can be traded there is a constant need to replenish ones resources, in a typical MMO once you acquire power item 001 you've got power item 001 until power item 002 obsolesces it. in EVE get power item 001 and it's only around until it ends up destroyed resulting in the need to acquire a replacement power item 001 Further since everything is trade-able there is plenty of incentive to spend your currency Another difference between EVE and the typical MMO is that generating currency is separated from advancement. Since the power of your character is based on a time skill system currency harvesting becomes a conscious act rather than an incidental result of normal game play. Now I'm not saying that EVE's developers don't have to pay attention to keeping sinks and faucets balanced but in general the EVE economy is pretty self correcting. As a result of how the market system works the largest sink in the game scales with isk flow. Market taxes and brokers fees ensure that x% is shaved off every transaction that takes place. If prices increase due to an increase in the isk supply then a greater amount of isk is removed, if more resources change hands do to increased isk supply then more isk is still removed It's auto-scaling. The economy in EVE is actually an fascinatingly effective self correcting model which I would generally suggest the developers should resist the urge to tinker with it Another thing that just occurred to me relating to PLEX prices. In addition to their prices being influenced by forces outside of the in game economy the fact that they can be converted to the only non-destructible items in game subjects them to mudflation in a way that other items in EVE are not.
Skex Relbore The Dominion of Light 117	Posted - 2012.03.14 20:58:00 - [4] - Quote Liang Nuren wrote: Skex Relbore wrote: Liang Nuren wrote: Not really, no. See, the thing about it is that there's a concept called mudflation - where in game currency enters the game via currency faucets faster than it leaves the game via currency sinks. This leads to an overall devaluation of in game currency and the price of items to rise because everyone has so much more in game currency laying around doing nothing Basically: people are asking for a healthy in game economy - which is why all the endless mentioning of faucets and sinks is necessary. [:) -Liang Actually mudflation has less to do with currency than with power accumulation. Game currency is only one part of mudflation, generally mudflation has more to do with older items losing value while others end up with ex-ordinate prices due to factors beyond simple currency accumulation. Your interpretation of the issues surrounding modern MMOs is so bad. It helps to be acquainted with the topic in question. The first sentence of the Wikipedia article on Mudflation: Wikipedia wrote: Mudflation, from MUD and inflation, is an economic issue that exists only in massively multiplayer online games. Mudflation occurs when future additions to (or even just continued operation of) a game causes previously acquired resources to decline in value I won't bother debunking the rest of your nonsense. -Liang -Liang You are missing the forest for the trees here. Currency accumulation and monetary inflation is an aspect of mudflation but it not the sole aspect nor cause of mudflation. If you ignore the effects that no-drop indestructible assets which remove most of the incentive to trade combined with the incidental accumulation of currency through normal gameplay you are not understanding what mudflation means. If mudflation were strictly a matter of currency inflation it wouldn't need a specific name with the qualifier that it's an issue that "exists only in massiviely multiplayer online games".
Skex Relbore The Dominion of Light 118	Posted - 2012.03.15 01:24:00 - [5] - Quote Liang Nuren wrote: No, what's happening here is that you're sticking your head in the sand. What we have IS an example of mudflation - contrary to what you originally claimed. Furthermore, I am not ignoring the effects of no-drop indestructible assets (aka "soul bound" items) - I'm simply pointing out that the Eve economy is having a problem right now as the faucets are running significantly faster than the drains This is a problem It is mudflation It is the definition of mudflation Stop trolling -Liang I'm not trolling, you are being obtuse. Mudflation is not simply monetary Also as I and others have pointed out EVE does not have an inflation problem either If it did you would be seeing a constant increase in prices overtime rather than the spike that coincided with two major null sec wars one of which has a huge effect on mineral prices. I'd say you have a 101 level understanding of currency but a even a basic macro course would give you a bit of a clue. Evidence of inflation. if there was inflation we'd have it. Yet for all the crying and bellyaching you and the rest of the chicken little's have been doing over the last 2 and half years I've not seen one iota of evidence All we get is your half-baked theory. well here's a little lesson for you. When theory conflicts with evidence, you toss the theory There are certain things we'd expect to happen if inflation was a problem primarily a stead increase of prices on all goods. The fact that we haven't had that should be sufficient to discard this bullshit.
Skex Relbore The Dominion of Light 118	Posted - 2012.03.15 17:47:00 - [6] - Quote Alice Katsuko wrote: Furthermore, a simple increase in raw ISK flowing into the world economy is in itself not a problem. It only becomes a problem if the money supply relative to the total population increases. Wikipedia has a good explanation on inflation and the total money supply in the economy. Excellent post, only two nit picks. One would actually expect an increase in raw ISK entering the economy at a slightly greater rate than the population increases, because along with the population growth you'll have a population that is becoming more "skilled" at making isk with a concurrent increase in the resources they consume. So an ISK supply that only increased at the rate of population growth would actually be a sign of a dysfunctional economy ,not a healthy one. Quote: In general, I wouldn't be too worried about inflation in this game. CCP has several mechanisms for controlling the in-game money supply, and can track precisely where ISK comes from and where it goes. So there's no reason for CCP to allow for uncontrolled inflation. I actually worry more about CCP's tinkering, their economist buys into a lot of the same OMG inflation nonsense that the chicken little's are constantly going on about. Great post otherwise ;-)
Skex Relbore The Dominion of Light 119	Posted - 2012.03.15 18:06:00 - [7] - Quote Liang Nuren wrote: Scrapyard Bob wrote: Vlodovich wrote: Since Ive been flying Broadswords, which is only a few months, they have increased 140 mil to 250 mil each. Worst is the Nomad, every time I save up enough isk to buy one they've gone up another billion. 3.8 bil a few months ago, something stupid like 7 bil now So what about all of the other T2 hulls? Have they also gone up? You can't look at a single aspect of the game economy which happens to be experiencing a supply / demand imbalance and yell 'ZOMG inflation!' without looking at all of the other parts of the economy. There are many market sectors in EVE where prices have fallen 20-30% over the last 6-12 months or which have remained fairly stagnant other then minor price swings due to supply/demand. Pretty much all T2 ships have gone way up in price - to the point that even the really bad ones trade near 100M these days. It wasn't so terribly long ago that command ships were trading at 110-120M ISK. Furthermore, the price of a Tempest has gone from ~85M to ~110M recently. You could argue that the across the board increases in price are indicative of a widespread supply/demand issue, but I think that's a fairly fallacious argument. Furthermore, we have a measurable way to demonstrate how much ISK is being injected into the game, and we can say with no small amount of authority that its much higher than the ISK being taken out of the game. Things which are not directly tied to NPC set prices are almost across the board rising in price - and this makes tons of sense. -Liang Go look at the entire market graph for the last 365 days on eve-markets.net , what you will see is that with the exception of some temporary spikes is a mostly flat market right up to the 21st of December when prices spiked. If monetary inflation were a problem you'd have seen a steady increase in prices through the entire year. What we see instead is a near instantaneous jump which is consistent with the supply disruption as a result of the DRF hostilities compounded by the increased demand caused by the war in the north. As to T2 prices, have you forgotten that CCP made changes in the material requirements for T2 production? Also has it occurred to you that the war in the north might just have affected the supply of tech while the CFC and Tech Cartel battle over control of Branch and Tenal? A war that also happens to consume a prodigious number of those very same T2(not to mention a truly mind boggling number of Maelstroms and Abaddons) ships and components you are seeing a price increase on? Evidence Liang, that's the measure of reality. Once again if inflation due to ISK injection were a problem we would have seen a steady increase in prices as the ISK supply increased, Since what we've seen instead was a price spike coinciding with major in game events that would simultaneous decrease supply and increase demand that should lead a rational person capable of critical thinking to the obvious conclusion that there is no ******* inflation problem!
Skex Relbore The Dominion of Light 120	Posted - 2012.03.15 21:38:00 - [8] - Quote Liang Nuren wrote: Skex Relbore wrote: Go look at the entire market graph for the last 365 days on eve-markets.net , what you will see is that with the exception of some temporary spikes is a mostly flat market right up to the 21st of December when prices spiked. If monetary inflation were a problem you'd have seen a steady increase in prices through the entire year. What we see instead is a near instantaneous jump which is consistent with the supply disruption as a result of the DRF hostilities compounded by the increased demand caused by the war in the north. I went and looked at the last 720 days so that I could see a bit of context from before Incursions launched (Nov 2010). What I see is that the prices back then were significantly lower and that there has been a long drawn out process of the prices going up - usually in large market readjustments. The price never goes back down. Exactly what I expect to see. Really that's what you'd expect to see in a case of run away inflation? Market index 7-12-2009: 120 Market index 12-3-2011: 137 Not exactly run away inflation. yeah so Incursions were launched 11-2010 you'd expect to see the market index significantly higher after compared to before right? assuming inflation was the problem? Market index 6-25-2010: 137 Yep that's inflation alright
Skex Relbore The Dominion of Light 121	Posted - 2012.03.16 18:02:00 - [9] - Quote [quote=Liang Nuren][quote=Skex Relbore Really that's what you'd expect to see in a case of run away inflation Market index 7-12-2009: 12 Market index 12-3-2011: 13 Not exactly run away inflation yeah so Incursions were launched 11-2010 you'd expect to see the market index significantly higher after compared to before right? assuming inflation was the problem Market index 6-25-2010: 137 Yep that's inflation alright [:roll: [/quote There are very clear signs of inflation if you actually look at the graph. Make sure you read the legend and you'll see the market readjustments in Nov 2010 (when Incursions was released) and Feb 2011 (when it went back down - presumably due to a nerf?). We can see other periodic market readjustments - and the one that obviously triggered this thread was in Dec 2011 Here are some price points Market Index: March 2010: 10 Market Index: Nov 2011: 21 Market Index: Dec 2011: 13 Market index: March 2012: 21 I'd like to take this time to point out that my disagreement with you is primarily over the definition of mudflation - which I am obviously using correctly. It is not in any way restricted to item power creep. There are also key differences between real economies and game economies that make traditional economic theory difficult to translate economic theory to one or the other Either way, CCP has already confirmed what is and is not causing the inflation we're seeing (and its not just Incursions) and that they are taking action to adjust the economy. I'm content to wait and see I took the liberty of screen shotting the 720 day market indicator graph from eve-markets: http://eve-files.com/dl/25297 -Lian Ed: Urlification[/quote You graphs are still not showing monetary inflation. Monetary inflation due to an over abundance of ISK would result in a relatively steady increase in prices overtime. What the graph shows is market volatility as a result of many different factors not price inflation due to an increase in the money supply The data just doesn't support your position. the initial bump on the graph coincides with the introduction of PI not incursions. Which makes perfect sense, CCP replaced a heavily regulated market that had a fixed price/costs and an unlimited supply with a completely new player controlled mechanic. The data just isn't consistent with monetary inflation. once again if we were looking at monetary inflation we'd see a steady increase in prices over time as the general supply of isk increased relative to production. This is not what has happened. Now you probably won't see a return to pre-PI prices because those inputs are limited by supply rather than simply being a factor of demand (NPC supplied items have an effective unlimited supply and their price is fixed which puts an artificial constraint on the market). Whether prices return to the Dec levels is going to depend on how the Russian war resolves itself and whether CCP removes drone goo as a major sources of minerals. The EVE economy is a fairly complex beast but monetary inflation isn't. Monetary inflation is a oversupply of currency relative to the overall economy and would manifest in a steady increase in prices over time. Now I'm not saying that there isn't any monetary inflation, there probably is. in fact a certain amount of inflation is generally healthy for an economy as it provides an disincentive to hoard currency. You would expect a general increase the supply of currency as the player base matures and becomes more efficient at harvesting isk, you'll also see a change in spending habits overtime as this happens. which is why I don't consider the 5% increase in money supply relative to population that CCP's economist reported to be indicative of a problem The point is the level of monetary inflation that has manifested in EVE has not caused the market failures associated with hyper-inflation. In fact all indicators are to the opposite. The EVE economy is humming along quite nicely. The bears are farming their isk the PVPers are blowing up their ships and everyone is having a good ole time. Which in the end is the whole point of the economy in the game.
Skex Relbore The Dominion of Light 122	Posted - 2012.03.17 17:45:00 - [10] - Quote Falkor1984 wrote: You are not looking at it from the monetary prospective, but from a goods perspective. The problem is that IF prices rise, people will start spending their money, because they fear it will be worthless tomorrow, which will drive up prices, which in turn will cause more money to be spent etc. Basically people will start hoarding goods instead of money. The "real economy" doesn't have anything to do with it. You can not ignore the "goods perspective" while talking about inflation. Monetary inflation is a function of the supply of currency vs the total productivity(goods) in an economy. Which is the whole point I keep trying to get people to understand. If productivity raises to match the increased rate of currency accumulation then you won't have price inflation at all. You are ignoring half the ***** economic equation with your assumptions, you are also working on this false rational actor nonsense. People spend money because they need stuff. As long as they need stuff they will buy **. If prices raise relative to their income they won't start spending at a higher rate because they won't be able afford it. Hell we can't reach a universal understanding of what inflation is how the hell do you think perceptions are going to have a greater increase on prices than supply? The same people crying today about inflation and an over abundance of isk faucets were crying about inflation back when they wanted L4's and insurance nerfed and prices were steadily dropping. This is why we're getting all these rationalizations of why we're not seeing the evidence that monetary inflation would create. There is a logical concept known as Occam's Razor which is a core concept in science, Occam's Razor states that between two competing hypothesis the one that makes the fewer assumptions is most likely correct Go look at the graph Liang posted. That' ain't monetary inflation that's price volatility due to fluctuations in supply and demand of goods. Those big spikes those are most likely speculative bubbles. The price increases that everyone is pointing to now are sudden and coincide with two huge null sec conflicts that affect two of most influential supply inputs in the economy DRF war disrupting mineral supply and the war in the North messing with Tech, you just don't need any more explanation beyond that. particularly when the expected manifestations had not materialized previously I am doubly suspicious of the Chicken Little's for the most part we're looking at the usual suspects who just seem to be more concerned about people being able to get out and earn a little isk by doing what they consider "low risk" activities. Inflation just seems to be their preferred red herring. Notice the targets, L4's, insurance, null anoms, incursions. Always focused on outliers and the extremely successful cases while ignoring the common. L4's where their first boogie man, "OMG blitzing missions leads to MAD INFLATION" of course at the time there was no inflation and to buy the argument you had to also ignore that the bulk of the income they were trying to attribute to mission running was actually trade and LP related Then insurance, "OMG people can prop up the mineral market and get free isk by insurance fraud" ignoring the fact insurance fraud made for a great balancing mechanic for an oversupply abundance of minerals as well as the effect it had on general risk aversion and of course missing the fact that insurance fraudsters were a very small percentage of the beneficiaries of the system. This line of reasoning repeats itself for anom's and now for incursions. Inflation is a handy boogieman because most people (including many supposed economist) have a very simplistic (inaccurate) understanding of what inflation is and why it's so BAD. Seriously I've been having this same argument with the same suspects for close to 3 years now. It never changes despite a complete and utter lack of any supporting evidence we get the continues cries of "OMG TEH INFLATION NERF ISK SINK I CONSIDER BAD GAMEPLAY At absolute most we've seen is that an increase in earning potential will move the price floor which as long as every can equalize to the new price point is not a problem. Once again inflation is only a problem if wages are inelastic as long as people can easily increase their earning potential to match the new dynamic it's not an issue. But what about CCPs 13 fold increase in the money supply Until CCP gives us a value on the increase in raw materials entering the market all the rest is just groundless rationalizing. To really have a measure on inflation we'd need to be able to compare money supply to the rate at which production inputs are injected into the economy. Show me the volume of minerals, moon goo, and PI entering/leaving the economy relative to the injection of isk and then we can have a real conversation about whether or not their is monetary inflation

Skex Relbore The Dominion of Light 124	Posted - 2012.03.17 20:39:00 - [11] - Quote Zircon Dasher wrote: Skex Relbore wrote: The same people crying today about inflation are, many times, the same people crying about how about how everyone is too rich and losses do not mean anything in PVP. This is silly, people being more "rich" just means people are flying more expensive stuff and will be less risk adverse.
Skex Relbore The Dominion of Light 129	Posted - 2012.03.19 04:15:00 - [12] - Quote Cpt Kupo wrote: As a casual player that has recently started to play again, the new prices is slowly making me regret playing again. Who thought Incursions would have such a great impact... Incursions are not the cause of the current pricing. If incursions were the problem we would have seen a steady increase in prices over time not a sudden jump. and it was sudden there was 0 ramp up on day the market index was around 130 the next it was 200 that's not inflation due to incursions that's a major market adjustment to a shortage in materials (namely the removal of all the drone poo when the Russians decided to have their civil war).
Skex Relbore The Dominion of Light 132	Posted - 2012.03.19 14:49:00 - [13] - Quote Theodemir wrote: I find it interesting [or a lack of reading skill] to find how 'x' amount of ISK genereated through various means is distributed. I'd have thought there are far fewer incursion runners than there are genuine & botting lvl IV mission runners // ratters. So despite Incursions generating less ISK in a month than NPC bounties, that generated wealth going into far fewer hands[also varied corps & alliances] would have a more profound effect on inflation, especially concerning PLEX Inflation has absolutely nothing to do with income distribution because currency is a fungible asset thus even if 10 people are responsible for that 25% of the isk entering the economy as long as they are spending it, it's exactly the same as if 10000 were generating that isk. And if they are hoarding it then it most certainly won't be inflationary because it's not being spent. There is of course something amusing about someone who starts off his post complaining about stupidity only to follow that up by saying something stupid.
Skex Relbore The Dominion of Light 135	Posted - 2012.03.21 02:14:00 - [14] - Quote Liang Nuren wrote: Skex Relbore wrote: Go look at the graph Liang posted. That' ain't monetary inflation that's price volatility due to fluctuations in supply and demand of goods. Those big spikes those are most likely speculative bubbles. The price increases that everyone is pointing to now are sudden and coincide with two huge null sec conflicts that affect two of most influential supply inputs in the economy Hard to believe they're speculative "bubbles" because they never came down. The market permanently readjusted upwards - which is what I was getting at. I'm talking about the really big spikes around PI's release. As far as the upward readjustment goes that was a result in a significant change in the production inputs brought about by the introduction of PI and doesn't represent a sign of inflation. Quote: Quote: But what about CCPs 13 fold increase in the money supply Until CCP gives us a value on the increase in raw materials entering the market all the rest is just groundless rationalizing. To really have a measure on inflation we'd need to be able to compare money supply to the rate at which production inputs are injected into the economy. Show me the volume of minerals, moon goo, and PI entering/leaving the economy relative to the injection of isk and then we can have a real conversation about whether or not their is monetary inflation Or we can just ask CCP if there's inflation... to which they say yes. And they do have those numbers. -Liang They may have the numbers to figure it out but they haven't provided the information to us. We'd need a good measure of the total goods in the economy (including contracts tbh) in order to know whether there is any inflation or not. Not all price increases are a sign of inflation and not all increases in the money supply is equal inflation either. there are too many variables to account for to count on those two factors alone. Monetary inflation caused by an over supply of isk would have manifested in a steady rise in prices as more and more isk accumulated not in sudden extreme shifts that correspond with major in game events that causeed adverse effects on the supply of raw materials.

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